Time-relativity and Grice: ex ante, ex post

by J. L. Speranza
-- for the Grice Club.

I AM CONSIDERING KRAMER (comment, "Following the orders -- breaking the law", this blog) regarding ex post and ex ante.

From the wiki entry on 'moral hazard' at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard

"Two types of behavior can change. One type
is the risky behavior itself, resulting in
what is called ex ante moral hazard."

The other is of course 'ex post' moral hazard.

EX ANTE. The easy one:

"In [the] case [of ex ante], insured parties
behave in a more risky manner, resulting in
more negative consequences that the insurer must
pay for."

Example 1:

"After purchasing automobile insurance, some
may tend to be less careful about locking the
automobile or choose to drive more, thereby
increasing the risk of theft or an accident for
the insurer."

Example 2:

After purchasing fire insurance, some may
tend to be less careful about preventing
fires (say, by smoking in bed or neglecting
to replace the batteries in fire alarms)."

------

THE OTHER HAZARD. THe controversial one: 'ex post':

"[The] second type of behavior that may change
[i.e. ex post moral hazard]
is the reaction to the negative consequences of risk,
once they have occurred and once insurance is
provided to cover their costs."

"In this case, insured parties do not behave
in a more risky manner that results in more
negative consequences, but they do ask an
insurer to pay for more of the negative
consequences from risk as insurance
coverage increases."

Example 1:

"Without medical insurance, some may forego
medical treatment due to its costs and simply
deal with substandard health. But after medical
insurance becomes available, some may ask
an insurance provider to pay for the cost of
medical treatment that would not have occurred otherwise."

-- Is this legal. Course it is!

GENERALISING the pattern:

Leave it to Psgrice!