-- by JLS
---- for the GC
FURTHER TO THE POINT mentioned by Doctorow from Grandy/Warner's entry on Grice on 'if p,q' as carrying a conversational implicature that 'tracks the conditional probability of q, given p', consider from wiki -- under 'causality':
"The mathematical theory underlying these derivations
relies on the distinction between conditional probabilities,
as in
P(cancer | smoking),
and interventional probabilities, as in
P(cancer | do(smoking))."
"The former reads:
"the probability of finding cancer in a person known to smoke"
while the latter reads:
"the probability of finding cancer in a person forced to smoke"."
---
"The former is a statistical notion that
can be estimated directly in observational studies, while
the latter is a causal notion (also called "causal effect") which
is what we estimate in a controlled randomized experiment."
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Fascinating! My former landlord in London, now an O.B.E., said to me: "It is the simple things in life that matter." It is a wise rule for philosophy and science, engineering and medicine, mathematics: "Follow the simple," even more than "Follow the money."
ReplyDeleteThe lack of simplicity may be what Shakespeare disliked most about lawyers, although I am not a Shakespeare expert but only a Shakespeare beginner. My wife Marleen is especially fond of Shakespeare for his psychological wisdom and his English (her father from Austria was taught the "real" British English, not Americaaaaan).
Osher Doctorow
Good. I was amused by the use of "do" in the two symbolisms quoted by wiki:
ReplyDeleteP(cancer | smoking)
P(cancer | do(smoking))
--- and was wondering that THAT scheme cannot apply generally to the posited implicature as per header of the thread, P(q/p) -- but maybe.
Since Grice used 'manoeuvre' a lot, and there is a 'hand' throwing the dice here, I shall speak of this as 'causal manoeuvre' (rather than interventional).
If it rains it pours
is hardly a good example, but while I can sort of influence Mr X so that he smokes (a cigar or two), I kant see how I can influence Life so that it pours. Or something.